In the shadow of the deep: the global submarine race and Poland's strategic void

As geopolitical tensions rise and the global security architecture is being reshaped, the world’s oceans are once again emerging as contested strategic arenas. Once the domain of nuclear powers, submarine fleets are now becoming a priority for a growing number of nations in both Europe and Asia. These underwater capabilities are seen not only as markers of technological independence and national prestige, but also as essential tools for modern deterrence and maritime security in the 21st century.

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10 june 2025   |   08:05   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

HMS Victorious / fot. Mez Merrill / MOD

Meanwhile, Poland – despite its NATO membership and strategic location along the Baltic Sea – has failed to make any lasting decisions on rebuilding its submarine force for nearly three decades.

Nuclear and AIP: two pillars of the modern submarine fleet

Submarines today fulfill a broad range of operational tasks: from stealth reconnaissance and anti-surface/anti-submarine warfare, to deploying special forces and – in the case of nuclear-powered boats – strategic deterrence with nuclear payloads.

The technological development of submarine fleets follows two parallel paths:

• Nuclear powers (e.g. the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK) focus on building nuclear-powered submarines (SSN/SSBN), which offer virtually unlimited endurance and months-long submerged operations without surfacing.
• Non-nuclear states, mostly in Europe and Asia, are developing advanced diesel-electric submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems, allowing for extended submerged endurance and improved stealth without compromising acoustic signatures.

Northern Europe: innovation meets pragmatism

Sweden: mastering stealth

Sweden has long been a global leader in conventional submarine design. Its Gotland-class and the next-generation A26 Blekinge-class are considered among the quietest submarines in the world. With Stirling AIP systems and sound-absorbing materials, Swedish submarines can operate undetected for weeks. The A26 platform is also being prepared to integrate underwater drones and unmanned systems, reflecting next-gen operational concepts.

Denmark: strategic reassessment

After completely phasing out its submarine fleet in 2004, Denmark is now re-evaluating that decision. With increased Russian activity in the Arctic and the Baltic Sea, Copenhagen is facing pressure – both strategic and allied – to consider rebuilding this capability.

Continental Europe: capability rebuilding

Germany: industrial backbone and export powerhouse

Germany remains the undisputed leader in conventional submarine production. The Type 212A and Type 214 classes form the backbone of numerous navies, including those of Italy, Norway, Greece, South Korea, Israel, and Portugal. Through ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), Germany is not only fulfilling domestic needs but also supplying cutting-edge platforms to NATO and non-NATO partners alike.

Netherlands and Belgium: strategic awakening

After years of strategic neglect, both Belgium and the Netherlands are actively reengaging in undersea warfare planning. The Netherlands has launched a procurement process for four new submarines to replace the aging Walrus-class, with bids from France’s Naval Group, Germany’s TKMS, and Sweden’s Saab.

Asia: technological rivalry and strategic deterrence

South Korea: domestic strength and missile capability

South Korea is rapidly emerging as a key player in the underwater domain. Its KSS-III Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarines feature AIP propulsion and vertical launch systems capable of deploying ballistic missiles. With nine units planned and all manufacturing conducted domestically, Seoul showcases a high level of technological sovereignty.

Japan: quiet innovation

Japan, after success with the Sōryū-class, is transitioning to the Taigei-class submarines, which utilize lithium-ion battery technology – a groundbreaking advancement that offers significantly longer endurance without AIP or diesel engines. This positions Japan at the forefront of non-nuclear propulsion innovation.

Russia: old power, new experiments

Russia still fields one of the largest submarine fleets globally, spread across four naval theatres: the Northern, Pacific, Black Sea, and Baltic fleets. The new Borei-class (SSBN) and Yasen-class (SSGN) platforms are particularly capable, with both nuclear and conventional payload options.

Despite severe economic and industrial challenges, Russia continues investing in experimental systems like Poseidon – an autonomous nuclear-powered torpedo designed for long-range coastal strikes. However, maintenance and modernization of older classes, such as Kilo and Akula, are falling behind due to budget constraints and systemic delays.

United States and Turkey: unmatched dominance and regional ambition

United States: global supremacy beneath the waves

The United States Navy operates the world’s most advanced and powerful submarine fleet, comprising over 70 nuclear-powered boats, including the Virginia-class attack submarines (SSNs) and the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). These vessels form the backbone of America’s second-strike nuclear capability and play a critical role in intelligence, surveillance, and global force projection.

The Columbia-class program, currently under construction, will replace the aging Ohio-class SSBNs, ensuring uninterrupted strategic deterrence through the mid-21st century. Simultaneously, Block V Virginias are being upgraded with Virginia Payload Modules, significantly increasing their missile-carrying capacity.

With unmatched logistical support, undersea infrastructure, and advanced sonar and weapon systems, the US maintains absolute dominance in undersea warfare. It also serves as a primary undersea partner and training provider to several NATO allies.

Turkey: regional power with growing undersea ambitions

Turkey is actively expanding and modernizing its submarine fleet as part of its broader drive for regional military autonomy. The Reis-class submarines – based on the German Type 214 design – are being built domestically in cooperation with TKMS, featuring AIP systems for extended submerged operations.

The program underscores Ankara’s emphasis on indigenous production and technological independence. In parallel, Turkey is enhancing its domestic industrial base, aiming to eventually field its own submarine designs in the future.

Operating in contested waters such as the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea, Turkey sees undersea dominance as a strategic necessity. Its growing fleet is a key component of its broader naval modernization strategy, which includes surface combatants, drones, and advanced missile systems.

United Kingdom – nuclear guardian of the Atlantic

Silent Service: the elite undersea force of the Royal Navy

For decades, the United Kingdom has remained one of the cornerstones of global nuclear deterrence, with its submarine fleet—known as the Silent Service—serving as a vital pillar of national security strategy.

At the heart of this force are the Vanguard-class SSBNs, equipped with Trident II D5 ballistic missiles. These submarines ensure a Continuous At-Sea Deterrent (CASD), maintaining an uninterrupted nuclear presence capable of delivering a second-strike even in the event of a surprise attack. Their successor, the Dreadnought-class, is under construction and scheduled to enter service in the 2030s.

Alongside its strategic fleet, the UK operates the Astute-class nuclear attack submarines (SSNs)—modern, stealthy platforms designed for anti-surface, anti-submarine warfare and special operations support. Built by BAE Systems in Barrow-in-Furness, the Astute-class represents the cutting edge of European submarine technology.

Britain is also a key partner in the AUKUS trilateral security pact, contributing its expertise to the development of next-generation nuclear-powered submarines for Australia—extending its influence into the Indo-Pacific theater.

Africa – between ambition and constraints: selected examples

Algeria – a quiet contender with Russian roots

Among African nations, Algeria stands out for operating the most capable submarine fleet. Its navy fields six Russian-built Kilo-class submarines, including the improved Project 636M variants, capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. These platforms offer Algeria strategic depth and silent strike capability across the western Mediterranean basin.

However, reliance on Russian technology carries risk—especially in light of post-2022 sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and growing scrutiny of military ties with Moscow.

Egypt – a Western partner with Eastern hardware

Egypt has diversified its undersea capabilities, acquiring four Type 209/1400mod submarines from Germany’s TKMS. These diesel-electric submarines form the backbone of Egypt’s modern submarine force, used primarily for coastal defense, training, and regional power projection in the Mediterranean and Red Seas.

Cairo continues to invest in naval infrastructure and international training partnerships, signaling long-term ambitions to become a maritime power in its region.

South Africa – modernization under financial pressure

South Africa operates three Type 209 submarines acquired from Germany in the early 2000s. While technically capable, their operational readiness has suffered due to chronic budgetary constraints, crew shortages, and delayed maintenance cycles.

Despite repeated official statements highlighting the importance of submarine capabilities, there have been limited tangible steps toward modernization or fleet expansion—leaving South Africa’s undersea force in a prolonged state of underutilization.

Poland: a Baltic nation without submarines

Against this backdrop, Poland’s position is increasingly untenable. Since 1997, multiple Polish governments have failed to finalize any procurement or modernization effort, despite repeated strategic declarations and aborted tenders under the long-standing Orka program.

From a fleet of six submarines in the early 1990s, Poland is now effectively without undersea capabilities:

• The last Kobben-class boats – ORP Sęp and Bielik – have been decommissioned and turned into museum or training exhibits.
• ORP Kondor, Sokół, and Wilk were scrapped.
• The sole remaining boat, ORP Orzeł (Project 877E Kilo-class, launched 1986), underwent partial modernization but is now considered combat-ineffective by modern standards.

Despite interest from France (Scorpène), Germany (Type 212), Sweden (A26), and Norway, no contract has been signed. Notably, Spain also remains active in the competition, promoting its S-80 Plus-class – though currently viewed as a long-shot option due to limited track record and delayed deliveries.

The absence of submarine capabilities is not just a tactical gap but a strategic liability. In a Baltic Sea conflict scenario, Poland would lack not only offensive tools but also effective anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities – a critical weakness in NATO’s regional posture.

Subsurface decisions that cannot wait

The underwater domain is evolving into a key theatre of modern naval competition. Submarines offer unmatched stealth, strategic reach, and the ability to operate below the threshold of open conflict. For nuclear states, they remain the bedrock of deterrence; for others, they are vital tools for surveillance, denial, and power projection.

While the world retools for 21st-century undersea warfare, Poland continues to stand still – tied up in indecision, bureaucratic inertia, and shifting political priorities. The result? A strategic void in the heart of NATO’s northeastern flank. In a world that’s diving deeper, Poland remains ashore – building museums where deterrence should have been.

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