Autonomous systems to become the backbone of NATO’s maritime security

John Mustin, President of Saildrone and a retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral, told Daily Mare that the future of NATO’s maritime security lies in hybrid fleets. Amid rising threats in the Baltic Sea, autonomous surface vehicles (USVs) provide allies with persistent surveillance and enhanced security at significantly lower operational costs. With their long-endurance presence at sea and real-time data processing capabilities, USVs enable rapid incident response and improve overall fleet efficiency. Mustin also emphasizes that integrating autonomous systems with traditional manned vessels allows crews to focus on missions requiring direct human involvement while simultaneously reducing risk and cost.

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06 october 2025   |   12:01   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

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We are witnessing very dynamic changes in maritime operations – from aerial drones to underwater autonomous systems. From Saildrone’s perspective, which trends are pushing NATO states to accelerate the adoption of autonomous maritime platforms?

Saildrone President, VADM (ret.) John Mustin: - The maritime domain is evolving under the pressure of real, rapidly escalating threats. In the Baltic, Russia continues to exploit the gray zone – conducting intelligence operations, leveraging commercial shadow fleet vessels for jamming and spoofing, and sabotaging critical undersea infrastructure. Combined with the region’s congested sea lanes, proximity to adversaries, and dependence on vulnerable seabed networks, these tactics expose fundamental limitations in traditional fleets –  constrained by size and availability and ill-suited to the kind of persistent presence, rapid detection, and wide-area awareness that modern maritime security now demands.

Traditional fleets alone cannot provide the scale or persistence required given simple constraints on force size and availability. Autonomous maritime platforms address the limitations of conventional fleets by offering long-endurance, highly capable, risk-free presence at sea. What we’ve demonstrated with Saildrone in NATO Task Force X is that uncrewed surface vehicles can dramatically expand the reach of allied forces, providing real-time maritime domain awareness at a fraction of the cost of crewed platforms. That combination of endurance, capability, affordability, and risk reduction is what’s accelerating adoption across the alliance.

In which operational areas – such as reconnaissance, protection of sea lanes, or the security of critical infrastructure – can autonomous platforms most significantly strengthen the alliance’s security in the next 5–10 years?

 The interesting thing about integrating unmanned systems is that you’re not just improving one mission – reconnaissance, sea-lane security, or infrastructure protection – you’re strengthening all three at once. And it’s not simply because the individual vehicles are performing those tasks; it’s because their integration fundamentally changes how the fleet is designed and how resources are allocated. By offloading the “always-on” missions like persistent ISR and infrastructure defense to autonomous platforms – which can operate at a fraction of the cost of a conventional ship without pulling sailors and assets away from high-end missions – you dramatically bend the cost curve and optimize the existing fleet. You free up traditional fleets to focus on power projection and warfare operations where they matter most.

That is the real transformation: uncrewed systems become the continuous, cost-effective layer of awareness and protection that underpins the fight, while crewed assets concentrate on the missions only they can execute. Over the next decade, that shift in force design to include autonomous systems will redefine maritime security for NATO – rapidly delivering greater capability, more persistently, at far less cost.

From the perspective of a practitioner working with navies and civilian institutions: what changes in naval doctrine are essential to fully integrate USVs – such as those developed by Saildrone – with conventional fleets?

Naval doctrine has historically been built around large, crewed platforms. To integrate USVs effectively, doctrine must evolve toward hybrid fleet concepts, where crewed and uncrewed systems are viewed as complementary elements of a single networked force. This requires a shift in mindset—from thinking in terms of individual platforms to thinking in terms of distributed sensor networks, delivery of multi-domain effects, and creating force multipliers. In practice, that means establishing operational concepts where USVs extend the sensing range of manned fleets, persist in areas where it would be risky or costly to deploy crewed ships, provide early warning and situational awareness that enables more decisive action by commanders, and ultimately deliver effects to dominate the battlespace.

How do you think interoperability should be addressed? Since autonomous systems come from different manufacturers, what cooperation and standardization mechanisms should NATO introduce to avoid integration problems?

Interoperability is essential, and the most effective way to achieve it is by ensuring that autonomous platforms can easily plug into existing naval systems. Our philosophy is to focus on how data moves – integrating Saildrone data directly into naval systems through secure APIs. In current missions with the US Navy, our data already appears in the same common operational picture our customers use to monitor conventional fleet assets, providing a unified view without additional complexity.

This level of interoperability must be a NATO priority from the outset. Establishing NATO common data frameworks and shared training and doctrine will ensure that these platforms can plug seamlessly into existing command structures. Interoperability cannot be an afterthought; it must be built into concepts of operations, doctrine, training, systems integration, and procurement from day one.

Rules of engagement are always crucial in military operations. How do you envision defining these rules in situations where autonomous systems – capable of reacting faster than humans – are directly involved?

Rules of engagement are created through a collaborative process involving military leadership, legal advisors, and government agencies, and therefore aren’t in our purview. And of course, we expect military leadership to establish, train, and employ ROE in accordance with the law. Autonomous systems like Saildrone USVs are currently optimized for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, where their ability to detect, classify, and report faster than humans is a significant advantage. We believe that when it comes to the employment of weapons systems or the projection of power, these systems should inform and enable human decision-makers, not replace them. Clear rules of engagement must reflect that distinction. By combining the speed and persistence of autonomous platforms with human judgment, NATO can harness the benefits of autonomy while ensuring operations remain aligned with international law and ethical standards.

Which technologies do you see today as the biggest bottlenecks in the development of autonomous fleets – sensors, artificial intelligence, communications, or power supply?

All of these areas present challenges, but resilient communications in contested environments remain the biggest bottleneck. Autonomy depends on the ability to share data securely and reliably, even when adversaries are actively trying to disrupt those channels. Saildrone has already demonstrated the ability to operate in GPS-denied environments, including in the Baltic and Red Seas.

Advances in AI-driven perception are also critical, particularly in congested waters like the Baltic, where distinguishing between commercial traffic, fishing vessels, and potential threats requires sophisticated onboard processing. Saildrone has compiled the world’s largest data set of maritime images over more than a decade of operations, which we’ve used to build our machine learning models and classification algorithms.

While the marriage of fuel capacity and available power supply creates a challenge for many autonomous systems, Saildrone’s unique design delivers an engineering advantage: our vehicles harness renewable wind and solar energy, yielding unmatched endurance. That said, scaling resilient communications and AI in a way that ensures trust, reliability, and mission assurance for allied forces will continue to drive future innovation in the unmanned space.

Saildrone is known for deploying units that can operate independently for months at sea. What solutions have you developed to ensure such mission endurance and resilience against electronic interference or cyber threats?

Our endurance is rooted in a design philosophy that prioritizes sustainability and resilience. While our platforms include diesel propulsion systems, Saildrone USVs leverage wind propulsion and solar energy, which allows them to remain on station for months without the need for refueling or resupply. From a resilience perspective, we employ multiple layers of protection. Our platforms incorporate redundant systems to maintain operability in the face of electronic interference. Cybersecurity is built into every layer, from hardware to software, and we continually update defenses based on evolving threat intelligence. That combination—renewable endurance and hardened digital resilience—ensures that Saildrone USVs can operate persistently in highly contested maritime environments.

In your view, should future autonomous systems focus primarily on reconnaissance and critical infrastructure protection, or could they, within a few years, also take on selected offensive roles?

The most mature roles for autonomous systems are reconnaissance, maritime domain awareness, and critical infrastructure protection. These missions leverage the strengths of uncrewed platforms—persistence, coverage, and the ability to operate in areas too hazardous or costly for crewed ships. Offensive applications introduce more complex ethical, legal, and political questions; however, there is no doubt that the future will see the development of armed, unmanned USVs. At Saildrone, we believe in prioritizing the development of technology to support missions that reduce risk to personnel, safeguard critical assets, provide commanders with better information for decision-making, and enable them to shape the battlespace. In that way, autonomous systems directly strengthen NATO’s deterrence posture without escalating operational risk.

From the perspective of states – purchase, leasing, or a service-based model: which approach to financing and acquiring USVs do you consider the most effective? Does Saildrone have its own philosophy in this regard?

There is no “one size fits all” when it comes to the incorporation of unmanned systems into a hybrid fleet.  To date, the service-based model has proven to be the most effective as we educate the market on the value of unmanned maritime systems. Rather than requiring navies to purchase and maintain fleets of uncrewed systems outright, Saildrone offers a “mission as a service” approach, where governments contract for persistent maritime surveillance and data delivery. This model lowers barriers to entry, allows customers to scale quickly, and ensures they benefit from the latest upgrades without assuming the full burden of ownership, manning, training, and sustainment. At the same time, we support flexible acquisition paths—whether through purchase, lease, or service-based arrangements—depending on a nation’s requirements and resources. Our philosophy is to provide the capability in the form that best meets the operational and budgetary needs of our customers.

How does the total cost of ownership of autonomous platforms compare with that of traditional crewed vessels in the long term? Is this already an obvious advantage today?

Yes, the cost advantage is well documented today. Beyond the significant upfront capital expense for a ship, a crewed vessel requires fuel, maintenance, recruiting, training, rotation, and support of a crew, which represents a significant portion of its lifecycle cost. By contrast, Saildrone USVs are powered by renewable energy and designed for minimal maintenance, which dramatically lowers their total cost of operation. A study by the Center for Naval Analysis was cited in a September 2025 US Naval Institute article concluding that Saildrone’s cost per nautical mile of surveillance is less than 5% of that of a guided missile destroyer when looking at only the crew and fuel cost alone, not even considering the upfront cost of the asset. When viewed over the long term, the difference is striking: autonomous platforms can deliver persistent coverage at a fraction of the cost of keeping a manned ship at sea. And given that a crewed vessel is typically underway less than 40% of the year, our track record of extreme endurance and availability creates a strong cost advantage.

Once we move toward large-scale deployment, logistical and service issues arise. Which aspects – spare parts, software updates, or maintenance – do you see as the greatest challenges?

Those challenges – spare parts, software, maintenance – ultimately come down to reliability. Reliability is at the core of Saildrone’s business. The greatest risk isn’t in any single sustainment task; it’s in fielding immature systems that haven’t been proven at scale. Early-generation platforms often struggle with uptime, durability, and integration – and that risk compounds when they’re deployed in critical missions.

That’s where Saildrone is fundamentally different. With more than 60,000 days at sea – the equivalent of driving the same car for 160 years – we have unmatched operational maturity. Our vehicles operate for months at a time across every ocean and have supported the U.S. Navy through consecutive years of real-world deployments. That depth of experience means our platforms start from a place of proven reliability, dramatically reducing operational risk.

What capabilities should local defense industries develop to allow Baltic states to independently maintain and expand autonomous fleets, rather than relying entirely on foreign suppliers?

Saildrone’s philosophy is that our USVs are the “truck” — a proven, long-endurance platform designed to operate for months at a time at sea. What makes that truck so valuable is the payload it carries and the data it collects and shares. We are largely sensor-agnostic, meaning that if a customer prefers to integrate locally developed sensors or mission systems, we can accommodate that. Of course, integration comes with an associated time and cost, but it ensures nations can tailor uncrewed systems to their unique operational requirements. For the Baltic states, the most significant opportunity is not in replicating existing platforms, but in developing complementary technologies—specialized sensors, analytics, and data exploitation tools—that, when paired with Saildrone USVs, create sovereign capability while leveraging a globally proven platform.

How does Saildrone define its cooperation with the European defense industry – through technological partnerships, knowledge transfer, or joint R&D projects?

Saildrone is proud to support the Baltic region’s national defense priorities through operational capability, technological excellence, and trusted partnership. Earlier this year, we established Saildrone Denmark, a European subsidiary, which will be headquartered in Copenhagen and serve as the hub for all Baltic and northern European operations. In this regard, our approach is collaborative. Saildrone does not operate in isolation; we have partnered with leading European sensor manufacturers through integration projects and joint R&D for years and will continue to do so.

From the perspective of a global company – which political, regulatory, or export barriers most significantly slow down the international spread of autonomous systems?

The biggest barrier isn’t policy – it’s pace. The technology is advancing so quickly that the real challenge for governments isn't regulation, it's keeping up with what's possible. Policy and regulation are inevitable – and necessary – but the focus should be on maintaining momentum in fielding, deployment, training, tactics development, and iteration even as those guardrails are put in place.

What this moment demands is a shift in mindset. Autonomous systems aren’t just new tools – they require new ways of thinking about operations, acquisition, and capability development. The nations that benefit most will be those willing to rethink old models and evolve their concepts fast enough to absorb capability at scale.

Many people are concerned about the risks of autonomy: hacking, algorithmic errors, or unintended conflict escalation. What do you see as the main strategic and operational risks in this field?

While we at Saildrone have carefully incorporated mitigation mechanisms to reduce risk across these categories, the main strategic risks are inadvertent escalation from misattribution and compressed decision cycles, rapid proliferation, lowering the threshold for use, and accountability gaps that invite legal and political backlash. Operationally, the risk surface spans cyber/EW vectors (hacking, supply-chain compromise, comms denial, GNSS spoofing, sensor deception, adversarial ML), brittle models (data bias, drift, edge cases), and human-machine C2 failure modes that can lead to loss of control, fratricide, or mission failure.

Which security standards – such as encryption, redundancy, or fail-safe mechanisms – do you believe should be mandatory for military platforms in order to build user trust?

Trust in autonomous systems depends on resilience. At a minimum, military platforms must include strong encryption to protect data and communications, redundancy to ensure continuity of operations, and fail-safe mechanisms that guarantee predictable behavior in the event of malfunction or interference. At Saildrone, we’ve built these principles into our platforms from the start. For NATO to adopt autonomous systems at scale, these standards should be non-negotiable, ensuring that every operator has confidence in the security and reliability of the tools they are deploying.

A difficult but unavoidable question: who should bear legal responsibility for the actions of autonomous systems during military operations?

Responsibility for autonomous vehicle employment must remain with human commanders. Autonomous systems are tools designed to extend awareness and reach, but they do not absolve humans of accountability for their employment. Commanders determine the mission, conform to the rules of engagement, and retain responsibility for outcomes. From Saildrone’s perspective, the role of USVs is to provide persistence, trusted information, and sensor/payload reach, not to make independent decisions about rules of engagement or the use of force. Legal responsibility, therefore, must remain firmly with the military chain of command.

Looking at the Baltic region – which scenarios for USV deployment do you consider the most realistic and useful over the next 3–7 years?

The Baltic presents a unique operational environment—highly trafficked, geopolitically sensitive, and dense with critical infrastructure. In that context, the most realistic and useful deployments are persistent surveillance of sea lanes, patrolling territorial waters, and safeguarding undersea energy and data infrastructure. USVs can also contribute to NATO exercises and operations, extending the sensing range of allied fleets, providing live intelligence to commanders ashore, and enabling the distribution of effects. We see the continued evolution of concepts of operation beyond the practical, near-term missions that uncrewed platforms are already demonstrating today, and they will be increasingly essential over the next several years.

How do you assess the market: in the coming decade, are we likely to see consolidation with a few dominant global players, or rather fragmentation with many specialized niche providers?

We expect to see both dynamics at play. As in aerospace and defense, a small number of large integrators will likely emerge to deliver complete systems-of-systems solutions for navies. At the same time, specialized companies will continue to innovate in niche areas such as sensors, communications, and autonomy software. The most effective approach will be cooperative, where primes and niche providers work together to integrate best-of-breed technologies into a cohesive force. Saildrone already plays that role today, providing proven uncrewed platforms that integrate seamlessly with allied fleets.

And finally, a visionary question: what political, budgetary, and training priorities should governments and NATO adopt in order to truly prepare for the era of widespread use of autonomous systems?

This is a question of will, and of vision. Preparing for widespread adoption of autonomy requires a holistic approach that spans political, budgetary, and training priorities. Politically, governments must commit to adopting hybrid fleets and create policies that encourage interoperability across the alliance. Budgetarily, resources must be allocated not only for platform acquisition but also for the supporting infrastructure, cyber resilience, and training programs that make autonomy effective. Training is especially critical—sailors and commanders must learn to operate with uncrewed systems as trusted teammates, not as experimental add-ons. At Saildrone, we believe the era of autonomy is not a distant future; it is already here. The nations that adapt quickly—politically, financially, and doctrinally—will be best positioned to secure their maritime domains in the years ahead.

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