Submerged in promises: when will Poland finally acquire new submarines?

From Kobben to Orka: a long history of delay

Poland’s submarine capability gap has deep roots. As early as 1997, the Polish Ministry of National Defence (MON) included new-generation submarines (OPNT – Okręt Podwodny Nowego Typu) in its Technical Modernization Plan. In the early 2000s, four second-hand Kobben-class submarines from Norway were introduced as an interim solution. Their intended service life? A maximum of 15 years.

In 2012, the acquisition effort was formally designated as “Project Orka” — a clear signal of strategic intent. Yet, as of mid-2025, the Polish Navy operates only one aging Kilo-class submarine (ORP Orzeł), which suffers from increasing maintenance and operational challenges.

Political ripples at the surface

Deputy Minister of National Defence Paweł Bejda clearly responded to the growing criticism aimed at the Ministry of National Defence leadership following the publication by Rzeczpospolita.

- Ladies and gentlemen, dear skeptics. I inform you that the Orka program is and will be continued. We are doing everything to ensure that the contract for the acquisition of submarines is signed this year. Even if there are those who do not believe it or are keeping their fingers crossed that we fail, said the Deputy Minister of National Defence.

Meanwhile, former Minister of National Defence Mariusz Błaszczak accused the current government of a lack of consistency and delays not only in the Orka program but also in a number of other defense projects:

- The Ministry of Defence promised the signing of the submarine contract this year. We already know that it will not happen. The ‘list of shame’ keeps growing: K9 self-propelled howitzers – none, K2 tanks – halted, HIMARS launchers – none, Black Hawk helicopters – cancelled, Orka submarines – delayed, added Mariusz Błaszczak.

The issue was also addressed by the Armaments Agency, which issued a statement.

“The Armaments Agency informs that the adopted process of acquiring submarines under the Orka program is proceeding in coordination with ongoing intergovernmental consultations. After their completion, we will proceed with the contracting process.”

It is worth recalling that in November 2024, the Minister of National Defence and Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that signing the contract for the delivery of modern submarines is a matter of honor for the government.

- The modernization of ORP Ślązak is at a standstill, and the program for purchasing three new submarines is simply lying dormant – no one is seriously addressing it. Meanwhile, the security situation in the Baltic Sea is becoming increasingly tense. Poland must have a strong and modern military presence in the north to effectively protect our strategic interests and critical infrastructure. Unfortunately, the current government demonstrates neither decisiveness nor understanding regarding maritime policy and national security. We need concrete actions, not declarations. These are fundamental issues – not for one ministry alone, but for the entire state. I expect that maritime defense and the protection of Polish infrastructure in the Baltic will become an urgent priority for this government, because this is something we all need as citizens in order to feel safe, commented MP Kacper Płażyński, Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Maritime Economy and Inland Navigation.

Where the Orka program stands today

Despite several waves of consultations and defense fairs showcasing platforms from France, Germany, Sweden, and South Korea, Poland has yet to finalize a procurement decision. The leading contenders include:

• Naval Group – Scorpène-class
• ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems – Type 212CD
• Saab Kockums – A26 Blekinge
• Hanwha Ocean / HD Hyundai Heavy Industries – KSS-III derivative concepts

According to Ministry sources, a contract decision is still “expected” by late 2025 — but similar promises have been made and missed for years.

Strategic implications

The lack of modern submarines poses a significant operational challenge for the Polish Navy. The Baltic Sea — while shallow and restricted — remains a high-threat environment, and submarines are vital for ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), sea denial, and strategic deterrence.

Since the retirement of the last Kobben-class boat in 2021, Poland has effectively lacked a viable undersea warfare component. The lone Kilo-class vessel is neither stealthy nor fully interoperable with NATO's most modern systems.

Poland has been “submerged in promises” since 1997. While the Orka program continues to feature prominently in every modernization blueprint, the absence of a signed contract after 28 years of need is striking.

Whether the current government will finally deliver on its submarine pledge remains to be seen. One thing, however, is clear: until Poland commits to action, its navy remains dangerously exposed beneath the surface.