Redefining non-nuclear deterrence: how South Korea built a credible conventional shield

In today’s security environment, deterrence is no longer synonymous with nuclear capability. South Korea has demonstrated that a state can build a credible, resilient, and strategically disruptive deterrence posture through advanced conventional systems alone. This achievement is particularly relevant for countries operating in contested regions — from the Korean Peninsula to Central and Eastern Europe.

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20 november 2025   |   10:40   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

fot. Hanwha Ocean

At the core of Seoul’s approach is the Three-Axis System, a fully integrated architecture designed to detect, counter and respond to emerging threats across the entire escalation ladder. The concept, rooted in Thomas Schelling’s theory of credible retaliation, is built not on the quantity of weapons, but on the opponent’s belief that any attempt to neutralize South Korea’s response capabilities would fail.

The Three-Axis System consists of:

• Kill Chain — early detection and the ability to conduct precise pre-emptive strikes on critical targets before enemy launch preparations are completed.
• Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) — a multilayered air and missile defense network built around M-SAM (Cheongung), L-SAM and advanced early-warning sensors.
• Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) — a doctrine of overwhelming conventional counter-strikes targeting leadership nodes and strategic infrastructure if the adversary employs weapons of mass destruction.

This structure gives South Korea a credible second-strike capability without relying on nuclear forces. The country’s investment in long-range precision strike systems — including the Hyunmoo family of missiles and the latest Hyunmoo-5 — as well as integrated C2 networks and maritime platforms, has elevated its deterrence posture beyond traditional regional models.

For partners and NATO members such as Poland, the Korean experience offers a blueprint for building resilient, cross-domain defensive architecture. Advanced sensors, distributed strike assets, long-range land-based missiles and maritime second-strike platforms — including KSS-III submarines equipped with conventional ballistic missiles — represent capabilities that fundamentally enhance strategic depth.

It is also notable that South Korea is, for the first time, extending such offerings beyond its immediate region. Warsaw is not the only potential beneficiary; South Korea is preparing to take part in major international programmes such as Canada’s next-generation submarine project. This signals a broader strategic shift by Seoul toward a global defence industrial presence.

Poland’s current security posture — shaped by the war in Ukraine and increasing threats from long-range missiles, drones and hybrid maritime–air–land vectors — aligns closely with the Korean model.

- Poland’s national defence strategy places growing emphasis on developing second-strike capabilities. Integrating elements of the Three-Axis System into the Polish Navy would significantly strengthen NATO’s conventional deterrence posture in the Baltic Sea region, says Seong-Woo Park, Vice President of Hanwha Ocean and head of the ORKA submarine programme.

South Korea’s example proves that a state can build a powerful, survivable deterrence system without nuclear weapons. Distributed across land, sea and air, these capabilities complicate adversary planning long before a conflict begins.

- As Poland expands its portfolio of long-range precision strike and missile-defence systems, adopting key components of the Korean model is a natural progression. High-survivability submarines will play a central role in that evolution, Park adds.

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odstraszanie konwencjonalne system Three-Axis koreański przemysł obronny bezpieczeństwo morskie okręty podwodne KSS-III

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