Politics

Poland turns north: Baltic Sea as a strategic hub for energy and security

Long perceived mainly as a Central European country, Poland is increasingly pivoting toward the Baltic Sea. This strategic reorientation – noted in international analyses – is driven by the country’s energy transition and the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Oskar Wojciechowski sales / advertising 01.09.2025, 15:53 Reading time: 2 min

A fully laden container ship maneuvers at the quay beneath a row of gantry cranes — fot. Tomasz Dresler / Port Gdańsk

In brief

Poland is shifting the centre of gravity of its politics and economy towards the Baltic Sea, driven by the energy transition and the consequences of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The LNG terminal in Świnoujście has increased its capacity to 8.3 billion cubic metres per year, and a second terminal with a capacity of 6.1 billion cubic metres is being built in Gdańsk, with opening in 2028. Offshore wind farm capacity in the Baltic is to reach 18 GW by 2040, and the cost of the programme exceeds 140 billion dollars over 15 years. The Port of Gdańsk is the fifth largest commercial port in the European Union.

Baltic energy at the core

The energy sector is at the forefront of this shift. Poland has committed to phasing out coal by 2049, and in June 2025, for the first time, renewable sources generated more electricity than coal (Forum Energii data).

Gas infrastructure is expanding as well. The Świnoujście LNG terminal has increased its capacity to 8.3 bcm per year, while a second terminal is under development in Gdańsk, scheduled to open in 2028 with a planned capacity of 6.1 bcm.

In the 2030s, Poland’s first nuclear power plant is set to be built on the Baltic coast, with cold seawater ensuring efficient and safe reactor cooling.

Offshore wind is becoming a pillar of Poland’s energy mix, currently accounting for 14.7%, compared to just 0.3% two decades ago. Government projections estimate 18 GW of capacity in the Baltic by 2040, requiring an investment of over USD 140 billion within 15 years.

- The Baltic course is not a matter of choice. It is practically the only way we can import energy. The sea becomes our window to the world, says Zuzanna Nowak from the foreign policy think tank Opportunity.

Ports and logistics – Baltic as a gateway

Geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Russia have reinforced the role of Poland’s ports. Over the past decade, cargo volumes have nearly doubled. Today, Gdańsk is the fifth-busiest seaport in the European Union, while Gdynia has emerged as a critical NATO logistics hub, handling shipments of military equipment for Ukraine and U.S. bases in Europe.

New alliances, new priorities

At the same time, Poland’s ties with Central European neighbors are weakening, with the Visegrád Group losing relevance amid pro-Russian policies in Budapest and Bratislava. Instead, Poland is deepening cooperation with Baltic and Nordic countries, including newly admitted NATO members Sweden and Finland. The Rail Baltica project, linking Poland with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, is a flagship symbol of this northern integration.

A northern course set to stay

Regardless of political outcomes in the 2027 parliamentary elections, Poland’s trajectory seems clear: energy, maritime logistics, and regional security firmly anchor the country to the Baltic Sea. The northern course is set.

Source: Gazeta Morska / PAP · Compiled by: Oskar Wojciechowski