Poland to build a digital twin of the Baltic Sea. Project MERMAID targets shipping, ports and offshore wind

Polish scientists have secured funding of more than PLN 12.5 million to build a digital twin of the Baltic Sea. Under project MERMAID, a consortium of the University of Warsaw, the Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IO PAN) and the Institute of Hydro-Engineering of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IBW PAN) will develop an advanced forecasting model designed to support operational decisions at sea, from port entries and wind farm servicing to responding to oil spills and algal blooms. The project, financed by the Foundation for Polish Science, is led by Professor Piotr Gwiazda of the Institute of Mathematics of the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling at the University of Warsaw.

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21 july 2026   |   09:11   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Michał Iwański   |   Print

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A virtual sea for real-world decisions

The digital twin will be an advanced computer model reproducing conditions at sea as accurately as possible, including water and air temperature, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure, wave height and direction, and sea currents.

- The system will forecast how the situation develops and, in doing so, support the decisions made by people working at sea, explains Professor Gwiazda.

The forecasting tool is meant to answer the practical questions that shipowners, masters and infrastructure operators face every day: what conditions to expect in a few hours or a few dozen hours, whether a vessel can safely enter port, when to schedule maintenance work offshore, and in which direction pollution may drift.

- Measurements at sea are very costly and by nature point-based. A numerical model allows us to turn that scattered data into a coherent picture and to anticipate what happens next, the project leader says.

Why the Polish coast needs its own model

MERMAID responds to the growing importance of the Baltic for Poland's economy and security. For much of the year the sea is a demanding working environment: in autumn, winter and spring, the weather windows allowing safe maritime operations can be very short. The Polish section of the basin adds challenges of its own.

- Our coastline consists largely of sandy beaches, long stretches without major ports and relatively difficult operating conditions. That means we need a model dedicated specifically to this area, Professor Gwiazda stresses.

Offshore wind, LNG and nuclear await better forecasts

One of the most important applications of the digital twin will be supporting operational decisions. This is gaining significance as offshore wind farms, LNG terminals, service ports and planned nuclear-related investments develop along the coast.

- More and more infrastructure is being built on the Baltic that does not operate only in summer and in good weather. If something needs servicing in winter, the decision to put to sea must be based on very good information about conditions, says Professor Gwiazda.

The system is intended to support port entries, transits of service vessels to wind farms, dredging operations and the maintenance of coastal infrastructure. The point is not only operational efficiency but, above all, reducing risk to people, equipment and assets.

- The most dangerous moments in shipping often occur close to shore, where the water is shallower and local conditions quickly become difficult for vessels. What matters most is reliable information about safe time windows for a manoeuvre, the scientist notes.

From oil slicks to algal blooms

The digital twin also has an environmental dimension. The model will support the analysis of processes that are hard to observe directly: pollution transport, water temperature changes, the movement of water masses and conditions favouring cyanobacterial blooms.

The system could prove particularly valuable in emergencies. In the event of a ship casualty, an oil spill or other contamination, the priority is to determine quickly in which direction the polluted water will drift and which areas need immediate protection.

Supercomputers racing the storm

The project's biggest scientific challenge will be coupling the atmospheric model with the sea model and integrating multiple data sources. The team will draw on the track record of ICM UW, which has been developing numerical weather forecasts for many years.

- Because measurements at sea are limited, data assimilation methods are crucial. They allow us to combine observations with model calculations, Professor Gwiazda explains.

The computations will run on high-performance computing infrastructure. That matters not only for the quality of the model but above all for its operational value: the forecast has to be ready faster than the phenomenon it describes. Data generated by the digital twin is to be made available through various channels, including an API, allowing maritime administration, wind farm operators, ports and vessels to download it and integrate it with their own systems.

Three years to the first services

The project is planned to run for three years. During that time the consortium of the University of Warsaw, IO PAN and IBW PAN will develop, test and calibrate the models and prepare tools and services for future users. The team makes no secret of the fact that building a digital twin is a continuous process.

- A system like this is never built once and for all. You can create the platform and the basic services, but calibrating them, refining them and adapting them to new data and user needs will take years, Professor Gwiazda concludes.

MERMAID shows how advanced mathematical modelling, supercomputers and cooperation between science and industry can translate into practical tools that improve safety, efficiency and the responsible management of the Baltic Sea.

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