High-pressure dominance brings frost and snow during winter holidays

The beginning of Poland’s winter holiday period will be strongly influenced by a persistent high-pressure system located over western Russia. According to Mariusz Jasłowski, meteorologist at Meteo24.com.pl, this setup favors prolonged stability but also harsh winter conditions, particularly relevant for the Baltic Sea region and coastal operations.

Kamil Kusier executive editor 19.01.2026, 09:25 Reading time: 1 min

Groups of people walk on a sandy beach in winter beside a calm sea and wooden breakwaters — fot. Mariusz Jasłowski

In brief

A strong high-pressure system over western Russia will dominate the weather at the start of the winter holidays, blocking the inflow of humid air masses from the Atlantic. Mariusz Jasłowski of the Meteo24.com.pl service forecasts temperatures on the coast and over the Baltic from around 0 degrees Celsius to minus 15, and locally minus 19 to minus 25 inland, with isolated readings below minus 27. Freezing fog and rime are possible in the coastal zone, posing a threat to port infrastructure and vessels. Numerical models point to convective precipitation, snowstorms and gusty winds at the end of January and the beginning of February.

- The high-pressure system effectively blocks Atlantic air masses, resulting in calm, sunny weather but also significant temperature drops, especially during nighttime and early morning hours, Mariusz Jasłowski tells Daily Mare.

Baltic Sea conditions: freezing fog and severe frost

Along the Polish coast and over the Baltic Sea, a humid and thermally diverse air mass is expected to persist, increasing the risk of freezing fog and rime ice formation.

- These phenomena pose a serious hazard for port infrastructure, vessels, and maritime transport, despite their visually striking appearance, the Meteo24 expert warns.

Temperature forecasts based on GFS and ECMWF models indicate:

coastal and offshore areas: from around 0°C down to -15°C,
inland regions, locally: -19°C to -25°C, with isolated values possibly dropping below -27°C.

Potential weather shift late January

While high pressure will dominate most of the period, late January may bring increased instability.

- Numerical models suggest a higher probability of convective precipitation events toward the end of January and early February, particularly in northern and northeastern Poland, says Mariusz Jasłowski.

For the Baltic region, this could include:

heavy snowfall,
snow pellets and small hail,
and even thundersnow, accompanied by gusty winds.

Forecast uncertainty remains high

Despite clear short-term signals, long-range forecasts remain uncertain.

- We are observing a delicate balance between suppressed Atlantic flow and very cold air masses from eastern and northeastern Europe. Any shift in this pattern may significantly alter weather conditions over the Baltic Sea, concludes Mariusz Jasłowski of Meteo24.com.pl.

Source: Gazeta Morska · Compiled by: Kamil Kusier