EU-Mercosur deal: challenges and opportunities for Polish ports, transport, and agriculture

For Polish farmers and food processors, the agreement signals a period requiring heightened vigilance. For ports and transport sectors, it implies the arrival of new cargo flows and the need to prepare infrastructure and logistics networks. Poland faces the challenge of balancing domestic market protection with opportunities arising from increased trade.

Ports under pressure

The phased market opening over 11 years allows Mercosur products, including beef, poultry, soy, and sugar, to enter the EU at preferential tariff rates. Poland’s Baltic ports will be at the center of these flows. Ports in Gdańsk, Gdynia, Szczecin, and Świnoujście are expected to face increased cargo volumes, higher storage demand, and a need to maintain cold chain integrity for perishable goods.

This increase in cargo volumes offers potential revenue opportunities for port operators and shipping companies, but also requires investment in cold storage, handling capacity, and inspection systems. Without adequate infrastructure, bottlenecks and delays could occur across the logistics chain.

Domestic transport and multimodal logistics

Imported goods will need to move from ports to distribution centers across Poland, putting pressure on both rail and road networks. Efficient coordination of multimodal transport, combining rail, road, and refrigerated terminals, will be essential for maintaining throughput and minimizing delays.

Peak periods may require additional transport capacity and storage in cold chain terminals to handle higher cargo volumes. Proper preparation of transport networks will be critical for taking full advantage of trade opportunities while mitigating risks to the domestic supply chain.

EU agricultural budget and limited increase

The agreement also draws attention to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) budget for 2028–2034. Poland is expected to receive €42.4 billion, including an annual crisis reserve of €900 million. Compared with the 2021–2027 allocation of €41.2 billion, the increase of €1.2 billion over seven years is modest.

Spread over seven years, this equates to approximately €170 million per year, which is a relatively small increase in the context of Poland’s entire agricultural sector. These funds could support sensitive sectors, modernization of farms, cold storage investments, quality control, and initiatives aimed at raising production standards.

Protective mechanisms

The EU safeguard mechanism allows preferential tariffs to be suspended if imports rise sharply above a 5% threshold. This is particularly important for beef, poultry, dairy, and other sensitive products. The mechanism provides time for the domestic sector to adapt and helps prevent a sudden influx of low-cost imports that could disrupt local markets.

Export opportunities

Although the deal focuses on imports, it also opens potential markets for high-quality Polish products. Processed meat, cheeses, and fruit and vegetable products may access Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, where demand for quality, food safety, and animal welfare standards is increasing.

Over the long term, Mercosur could provide a niche for premium Polish exports while simultaneously safeguarding the domestic market through protective mechanisms.

Balancing risks and opportunities

In the short and medium term, Polish ports, transport systems, and agricultural producers will face increased competition, price pressure, and infrastructure challenges. In the longer term, protective mechanisms, phased market opening, and strategic use of CAP funding could turn potential risks into advantages.

Polish ports have the potential to become central hubs for Mercosur flows, multimodal transport could gain strategic importance, and farmers could use the transition period to improve quality and competitiveness. Success will require careful planning, investment, and effective use of available resources.