Storm returns to the Baltic. Peak on Wednesday, gusts of up to 12 on the Beaufort scale

A deep low tracking from Eastern Europe towards Scandinavia is driving stormy conditions across the southern Baltic. According to the indicative wind forecast issued by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), the most severe conditions will arrive on Wednesday, 8 July, centred on the eastern part of the sea, including the Gulf of Gdańsk. It is a situation that should be watched not only by shipowners and fishermen, but also by ports, offshore wind contractors and the thousands of recreational sailors making the most of the peak season.

weather west pomerania tricity news szczecin lagoon vistula lagoon

08 july 2026   |   00:14   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Michał Iwański   |   Print

fot. Mariusz Jasłowski

A Scandinavian low fuels the wind

The change in weather is driven by a low-pressure system moving from Eastern Europe towards Scandinavia. This extratropical cyclone, sitting alongside an extensive high over the western part of the continent, creates a sharp pressure contrast. It is precisely this pressure gradient that acts as the engine driving gusty, storm-force winds along the entire Polish coast.

The first second-level warnings covered part of the coast as early as the opening days of July. They concerned winds from westerly and north-westerly directions, with mean speeds reaching 55 km/h and gusts up to 90 km/h. The forecast shows that the episode is not fading but continuing to pulse through the first half of the week, with a marked intensification at its start.

- It is a classic setup: a deep low travels towards Scandinavia while a strong high holds over the west of the continent. The pressure gradient between them tightens, and the more tightly the isobars are packed, the harder it blows. A pattern like this can sustain storm-force wind for several days, with a clear maximum at the beginning of the episode, explains Mariusz Jasłowski, meteorologist at Daily Mare.

The forecast, day by day

IMGW has published an indicative wind forecast for the Southern and South-Eastern Baltic, covering the period from 8 to 10 July. Its key points are set out below.

The South-Eastern Baltic (covering the Gulf of Gdańsk and the eastern coast):

• Wednesday, 8 July: the peak of the episode. Westerly wind veering north-westerly, force 8 to 9, gusting 10 to 12 on the Beaufort scale, gradually easing to 6 to 7, gusting 8. A full storm, at times a severe one.
• Thursday, 9 July: north-westerly wind 6 to 8, temporarily gusting 9 in the east, easing to 5 to 7 by the end of the day.
• Friday, 10 July: a clear calming. North-westerly to northerly wind 5 to 7, easing to 4 to 5.

The Southern Baltic (the central coast) looks somewhat milder:

• 8 July: north-westerly wind, temporarily westerly, 7 to 8, gusting 9, easing to 5 to 6.
• 9 July: 5 to 6, easing to 3 to 5.
• 10 July: mostly from northerly directions, 3 to 5, easing to 2 to 4.

It is worth stressing the nature of this forecast. It is indicative: official, but a guide, marking the expected range rather than a certainty. The upper bound of the gusts, "10 to 12", describes the worst-case scenario. In practice this means speeds from around 90 km/h (force 10), through 103–117 km/h (force 11), up to more than 118 km/h (force 12). Gusts of force 12 in the South-Eastern Baltic in July would be exceptional, which is why the realistic maxima are more likely to fall in the force 10 to 11 range, that is, up to around 110–115 km/h. This does not change the substance of the warning: these are storm conditions, dangerous for shipping and coastal infrastructure.

- The worst should come on Wednesday, mainly in the eastern part of the coast. That said, the forecast gusts of 10 to 12 on the Beaufort scale are the upper end of the range, not a certainty. Realistically I would expect more like 10 to 11, meaning gusts of up to around 110–115 km/h. Even so, these are conditions in which smaller vessels should not put to sea, notes Mariusz Jasłowski.

The Beaufort scale: approximate gust speeds

• Force 8 (gale): 62–74 km/h
• Force 9 (severe gale): 75–88 km/h
• Force 10 (storm): 89–102 km/h
• Force 11 (violent storm): 103–117 km/h
• Force 12 (hurricane): from 118 km/h, with no formal upper limit

Why a Baltic storm can be treacherous

The Baltic, for all its modest size on the scale of world shipping, can be a demanding body of water. This comes down to its physical characteristics: a relatively shallow depth and a limited fetch. The result is a short, steep and quickly building sea, unlike the long, rolling waves of the open ocean.

For smaller vessels it is precisely this short, sharp sea, rather than the wind speed itself, that poses the greatest danger: the loads follow one another in quick succession, the hull has no time to settle, and water easily comes aboard. With a veering wind, as in the current forecast from westerly to north-westerly, a cross sea develops as well, making steering harder and worsening comfort even aboard larger vessels.

What it means for shipping and ports

For the maritime sector, a storm of the forecast strength translates into concrete operational decisions. With winds of force 8 to 9, shipowners and masters routinely revise passage plans, and smaller units, including fishing cutters, usually stay in port.

At cargo terminals, strong wind forces the suspension of crane operations. Container and ro-ro operations are particularly sensitive to gusts, because handling cargo safely under a crane becomes impossible above certain wind thresholds. In practice this means a risk of shifts in call schedules, delays in vessel handling and, in the most severe conditions, temporary restrictions on ferry traffic.

Work at sea is a separate category. For contractors and service companies operating at offshore wind farms, weather windows set the rhythm of the work; with a storm in the forecast, crew transfer operations and installation work are usually suspended in advance. At the peak of the investment season on the Polish offshore market, every such episode is a real cost of downtime. It is also an argument for taking decisions to put to sea with an appropriate safety margin.

Storm surge and backflow, a factor to watch

With winds from the west-north-west sector, the risk of a storm surge in the Gulf of Gdańsk, and of water backing up in the estuarine stretches of rivers including the Martwa Wisła (Dead Vistula), becomes a natural concern. It is worth being cautious with forecasts, however: in summer the Baltic's water level tends to be lower than in the autumn-winter season, when hydrological alerts accompany storms almost as a matter of routine.

- In summer, situations like this happen less often than in autumn or early spring, but they can be just as dangerous. With winds from the westerly and north-westerly sector, the water level in the Gulf of Gdańsk and on the Martwa Wisła needs to be watched, though the scale of any surge will only be settled by the live readings, adds the meteorologist.

The current level and trend of the water should be checked on an ongoing basis. It is the hydrological readings, alongside wind strength, that determine the scale of the threat to quays, low-lying areas and port infrastructure.

Peak season, more amateurs on the water

The July storm has one more dimension that cannot be overlooked. This is the height of the sailing and tourist season. There are far more people on the water and along the shore than in the months when storms are more frequent.

Experienced sailors know that a forecast is to be taken seriously, but it is the less practised users of the water who are most exposed: those chartering yachts, water-sports enthusiasts, people walking out onto piers and breakwaters. The basic rules remain unchanged: keep a safe distance from rough water, avoid unstable coastal structures, and follow all warnings and access bans without exception. Admiring the power of the elements is never worth the risk.

Where to check the data

The primary source of maritime warnings and forecasts remains IMGW-PIB, including its baltyk.imgw.pl service, which publishes meteorological and hydrological bulletins, wave forecasts and sea-level forecasts. Services with interactive maps, such as Windy and Meteo.pl, can be a useful supplement that helps to visualise how the phenomenon is developing. They do not, however, replace official warnings.

For maritime operators, the up-to-date bulletins issued by harbourmasters and emergency services are crucial, as they translate the forecast into concrete operational restrictions.

A storm out of season

Although we most often associate storms with autumn and early spring, when active low-pressure fronts over Scandinavia sharpen the weather over the Baltic time and again, the current episode is a reminder that dangerous breakdowns in the weather can occur at any time of year. For the entire maritime chain, from shipowners to ports and offshore contractors, the message is a single one: monitoring the weather, and keeping a safety margin, has no season.

Buy us a coffee, and we’ll invest in great maritime journalism! Support Gazeta Morska and help us sail forward – click here!

pogoda dla Pomorza pogoda na bałtyku sztorm na bałtyku pogoda dla trójmiasta morze bałtyckie pogoda

comments

---

enter content

COMMENT

nick

Add the first comment