Hot summer, cold Baltic: July on Poland's coast and in the north

July 2026 is shaping up unusually. Over land, another warmer-than-average, dynamic summer is on the way, with recurring heatwaves and storms – but the sea itself is running against that trend. Thanks to a record winter inflow of cold water from the North Sea, the Baltic is set to be around 2°C colder than the norm this summer. For the coast, Western Pomerania, Warmia and Masuria and the Powiśle, that means a month of contrasts – hot spells broken up by cooler, windy interludes, over a sea that will not exactly pamper bathers but may bring good news for fishermen.

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05 july 2026   |   18:16   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

fot. Mariusz Jasłowski

A cool, windy start to the month

July opened on the coast with a sharp break in the weather. A deep low-pressure system formed over the Baltic, tracking from Eastern Europe towards Scandinavia, and behind it cool, humid polar-maritime air pushed in from the north-west. The result was strong wind and convection: gusts reached 75 km/h on the coast and up to 90 km/h over the open sea, with temperatures of 18–26°C in the first days of the month. IMGW placed the coastal counties of Pomerania and Western Pomerania under first- and second-level warnings, while the counties of Puck, Wejherowo, Lębork and Słupsk were under alerts for thunderstorms with hail and rainfall of 20–25 mm.

The episode was followed by a marked cooling. In Pomerania temperatures locally failed to exceed 20°C, and nights – especially in the north and inland – dropped into single figures. Forecasts suggest this quieter, cooler and still-changeable weather may hold roughly until the second half of the month. Later – according to long-range models and signals of another "heat dome" forming over the Atlantic – heat may return to Poland from the west. It is a pattern typical of the season: short, sharp bursts of heat interspersed with cooler spells and storms.

July according to IMGW: warmer than usual, rainfall near normal

This year's weather on the coast is well summed up by Mariusz Jasłowski, Daily Mare's meteorologist.

- This July shows clearly that the weather on the coast has to be read on two tracks – the land separately, the sea separately. On land we face a dynamic summer, warmer than average, with returning heatwaves and storms; but the Baltic itself, after a record winter inflow of water from the North Sea, will this summer be colder than the norm, in places by around two degrees, he says.

IMGW's experimental long-range forecast indicates that the average monthly air temperature in July will most likely settle above the 1991–2020 multi-year norm, while the monthly rainfall total should fall within that norm. The spatial pattern matters, though: the strongest upward deviations are forecast for the south of the country, whereas in the north – including the coast, Pomerania and Masuria – July is expected to run closer to typical values. In other words, for the coastal belt the month promises to be "normal to slightly warmer", rather than extremely hot.

It is worth keeping meteorological discipline here. An IMGW spokesperson forecast a summer warmer than average but also dynamic, with alternating hot, stormy and briefly cooler spells and a risk of violent phenomena. The Institute itself repeatedly stresses that a seasonal forecast is indicative and experimental, describing the average course for a whole region and month – it cannot pin down the weather for a specific day or place. On top of that comes the character of the season: we are at the peak of the storm season, which in Poland runs from April to October, peaking in June and July.

- And, as always with seasonal forecasts, this is a picture of tendencies, not a guarantee of the weather on any given day, Jasłowski cautions.

The Baltic against the tide: a colder-than-usual sea

This is the most interesting thread of this year's summer from a maritime-economy standpoint. While the second half of 2026 is shaping up globally as one of the hottest on record – partly due to the El Niño that has developed in the Pacific – Poland's sea is heading the other way. Early in the year a record volume of water flowed out of the Baltic, driven by Arctic winds into the North Sea, and in exchange came a strong influx of cold, well-oxygenated water (the so-called Major Baltic Inflow). As a result, the sea's temperature this summer may be around 2°C below the norm, and regularly exceeding 20°C near the shore would be quite a surprise. IMGW notes, moreover, that the course of summer in Poland depends more on the situation over the Atlantic and Europe than on El Niño itself.

- For bathers it's a disappointment, for the sea it's a chance: an inflow like this, once a decade, oxygenates the deeper waters and helps life recover, cod included, Jasłowski stresses. - Better oxygenation works in favour of an ecosystem long burdened by deoxygenation and eutrophication, offering hope of improved fish-stock condition.

Bathing-water temperatures will remain highly varied and local. The warmest water is traditionally found in the shallow, sheltered basins – the Bay of Puck and the Bay of Gdańsk – where at the height of summer it can reach 20–22°C, and more in hot, windless spells. Over the open sea and along the central coast (Kołobrzeg, Ustka) it tends to be cooler, often below 18°C. One phenomenon worth bearing in mind in this year's windy weather is upwelling. "With winds blowing off the land, the water near the shore can cool by several degrees in a single day," warns the Daily Mare meteorologist. Over the longer term the Baltic is warming anyway (by an estimated 0.15–0.33°C per decade), which favours, among other things, cyanobacteria blooms – but that is a decadal trend, not a scenario for the coming weeks.

The regions: from Świnoujście to Masuria

Pomerania (coast and inland). The region most exposed to the maritime side of this year's weather. In the first part of July, strong and gusty winds, thunderstorms with hail and torrential rain remain in play – most dangerous along the coastal belt, where gusts over the water reach their highest values. After the cooling, temperatures can fall well below 20°C for a few days. Over the month as a whole, however, the weather should return to values typical of July.

Western Pomerania. A similar scenario to Gdańsk Pomerania: in low-pressure episodes, gusts of around 75 km/h in the coastal zone and warnings for the seaside counties (including Gryfice, Kamień and Świnoujście). The western strip of coast tends to have slightly warmer water than the central coast, but here too this year's caveat about a colder sea applies.

Warmia and Masuria. The lake district will be under the same unstable air mass, which translates into recurring storms and local squalls (some Masurian counties were placed under alerts at the start of the month). In terms of temperature, July here is expected to run close to the norm, with hot spells during inflows of warmer air. For inland shipping and water tourism, tracking storm forecasts at short notice will be key.

Powiśle and Żuławy. A transitional area between the coast and the country's interior – with weather closer to the continental, but still within reach of the same low-pressure systems. Storms and gusty winds should be expected on days of breakdown, along with temperatures close to the July average, periodically lifted by inflows of hot air.

What it means for shipping, ports and fisheries

For maritime practice, what matters most is not the temperature level itself but the variability. Strong wind in low-pressure episodes – with gusts to 90 km/h over the open sea – is a real obstacle for smaller vessels, recreational sailing and inshore work, and the convective storms typical of July can develop very fast.

- The biggest practical challenge, though, remains the wind and fast-moving storms; the windows of good weather between fronts can be short, so I'd advise basing any decision to put to sea on the very latest advisories, Jasłowski points out.

The colder Baltic has two faces. For seaside tourism and bathing it is a minus – the water will be less inviting than in recent, warm seasons, and upwelling may cool it further and suddenly. For fisheries, however, better-oxygenated water after the strong inflow is a chance to improve the condition of the ecosystem and fish stocks. It is a rare situation in which a "worse" beach season goes hand in hand with a better outlook for the sea.

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