When two powers clash, Poland must be ready to act. Military security must be the priority

In March 2026, as Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine enters its twelfth year and the authorities of the Russian Federation openly signal geopolitical ambitions extending beyond the current theatre of war, Poland can no longer afford strategic uncertainty or dependence on external factors in key security decisions.

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Today | 08:32 | Source: Gazeta Morska | Prepared by: Kamil Kusier | Print

fot. Marynarka Wojenna RP

The security environment in Central and Eastern Europe remains unstable. Hybrid operations, disinformation campaigns, energy pressure and the continued militarization of the Kaliningrad region have created a persistent threat landscape. Even if these risks are not always dominant in the daily media narrative, they remain a permanent feature of the region’s security architecture.

Under such conditions, national security cannot be treated as a matter of political preference but as a fundamental requirement for the long-term stability of the state.

On March 4, 2026, President of the Republic of Poland Karol Nawrocki and the president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), Professor Adam Glapiński, presented a proposal for a program called Polish SAFE 0%. The initiative is intended to serve as a fully domestic mechanism for financing the accelerated modernization of the Polish Armed Forces and as an alternative to the European Union’s financial instrument known as SAFE.

Importantly, the proposal is not merely conceptual. It assumes the allocation of 185 billion PLN for military modernization without interest costs, without increasing public debt and without long-term financial obligations extending over several decades.

The mechanism would also not require formal negotiations with European Union institutions. The funding would come from profits and reserves accumulated by the National Bank of Poland over the past thirty months, effectively redirecting resources generated by the domestic economy toward strengthening the country’s defence capabilities.

During a joint press conference at the Presidential Palace, President Karol Nawrocki described the proposal as

“a concrete, Polish, secure and sovereign alternative to the European SAFE program that does not involve interest costs — hence the name SAFE 0%.”

According to the initiative’s authors, the proposal was preceded by analyses conducted by experts in public finance, law and defence strategy. In their view, the domestic variant could prove more advantageous in the long term both in terms of financial costs and strategic flexibility.

The European SAFE program. Significant funding, but in a credit-based format

For comparison, the European SAFE (Security Action for Europe) program, launched in 2025, provides Poland with the largest allocation among EU member states — more than €43.7 billion, equivalent to approximately 185–195 billion PLN.

The scale of financing is substantial and the credit conditions are relatively favorable. Interest rates remain close to zero and repayment periods may extend as far as 2070.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government has consistently emphasized the advantages of this solution. In numerous public statements in February and March 2026, the prime minister highlighted that the program was largely based on Polish proposals and that the European Commission accepted the structural framework suggested by Poland.

According to government declarations, 80–89% of the funds are expected to be spent within the Polish defence industry.

The program could therefore serve as a strong development impulse for companies such as PGZ Stocznia Wojenna, Mesko, PIT-Radwar, Huta Stalowa Wola and WB Electronics. The anticipated effects go beyond military modernization, potentially strengthening the technological capabilities of the domestic defence sector, supporting the development of dual-use technologies and expanding Poland’s export potential in the defence industry.

During a visit to industrial facilities in Kobyłka, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stressed that only 0.37% of Poland’s financial package would go to the German defence industry, arguing that this undermines claims of a large-scale transfer of funds abroad.

At the same time, he emphasized the urgent need to accelerate investments in air defence, artillery and armoured capabilities.

However, the European SAFE mechanism remains a loan-based financial instrument. This means that repayment obligations will affect future public budgets for decades, and the program operates within procedural frameworks defined at the EU level.

Large-scale projects require coordination with EU institutions, and some procurement priorities are linked to EU preferences regarding industrial cooperation and joint defence programs.

As a result, the financial obligations associated with the program will influence the budgets of future governments until the second half of the century.

In an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment, some analysts argue that such a model may generate long-term strategic risks.

Allocation of SAFE funding

The government has presented a detailed spending plan for the SAFE program covering the period 2026–2030.

The largest share of the budget — 28% (approximately 47–48 billion PLN) — is allocated to the development of artillery systems. This includes production of Krab self-propelled howitzers, new self-propelled artillery platforms, Baobab mine-laying vehicles, and a significant expansion of ammunition production capacity.

Another 26% (approximately 44 billion PLN) is designated for air and missile defence, including counter-drone systems. Projects include further development of the SAN air defence system (PIT-Radwar), Piorun missile systems, and continued expansion of the Wisła and Narew programs, as well as the strengthening of defensive infrastructure under the Eastern Shield (Tarcza Wschód) project.

Approximately 19% (around 32 billion PLN) will support ground combat systems, including Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles, Rosomak armoured transporters, and engineering vehicles.

Another 14% (about 24 billion PLN) will be dedicated to ammunition and missile production.

The remaining segments include:

8% (around 14 billion PLN) for strategic air transport and space systems
3% (around 5 billion PLN) for cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and digital technologies
2% (approximately 3–4 billion PLN) for naval projects

In total, the program covers 139 investment projects with strong participation from domestic industry.

Some investments will also involve other national security institutions, including the Police, Border Guard and the State Protection Service.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk has described the initiative as the largest military modernization program in Poland’s history, potentially involving up to 12,000 companies across the national economy.

Polish SAFE 0%. Financial sovereignty and strategic flexibility

Supporters of the domestic initiative argue that SAFE 0% offers several important advantages.

The primary argument concerns the source of financing. The funds already exist within the domestic financial system in the form of profits and reserves generated by the National Bank of Poland. This would eliminate the need for borrowing and therefore avoid long-term debt obligations.

A second advantage would be full decision-making autonomy in defence procurement.

Poland could pursue acquisitions based purely on its own strategic priorities, including equipment produced both within Europe and by partners such as the United States or South Korea.

In practical terms, this would allow the simultaneous development of domestic technological programs — including unmanned systems, electronic warfare capabilities and cruise missile technologies — while also procuring proven foreign systems.

From the perspective of proponents, complete national control over decision-making processes is a crucial factor, particularly in a rapidly evolving security environment.

Zbigniew Bogucki, head of the Presidential Chancellery, emphasized that the proposal is not intended as a political initiative against the government or against EU institutions, but rather as a mechanism aimed at strengthening national security while limiting long-term public debt.

Institutional and economic challenges

Because the proposal has only recently been presented, its implementation would require the development of detailed legal and institutional frameworks.

Key issues include:

mechanisms for transferring funds from the National Bank of Poland while preserving the independence of the central bank
coordination with the Ministry of National Defence’s modernization plans
assessment of the potential impact on financial stability and monetary policy

Some economists also point to the opportunity cost of using NBP reserves, which could otherwise be allocated to strengthening foreign currency reserves, reducing tax burdens or financing infrastructure investments.

On the other hand, many analysts argue that under conditions of serious national security threats, defence investments must be treated as a strategic safeguard for state stability.

A possible scenario: complementarity rather than competition

According to many experts, the most rational solution could involve combining both financing mechanisms.

The European SAFE program could support large-scale, long-term industrial and technological projects, particularly those implemented through international cooperation.

Meanwhile, Polish SAFE 0% could be used to finance urgent strategic acquisitions and projects requiring maximum decision-making flexibility.

In practice, such a combined approach could lead to total defence investments reaching 350–400 billion PLN in the coming years, representing an unprecedented scale of military modernization in Poland’s history.

President Karol Nawrocki has stated that he has invited Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz to discussions on the initiative and declared readiness to present a legislative proposal on the matter.

National security as a shared responsibility

The debate surrounding the financing of military modernization extends beyond current political disputes.

At its core lies a fundamental question: how capable the Polish state is of independently shaping its security policy in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

Poland is now facing a strategic decision regarding both the scale and method of financing the modernization of its armed forces — a decision that may define the country’s defence potential for decades to come.

Public expectations focus primarily on tangible outcomes:

stronger deterrence capabilities
modern and effective air defence systems
a robust domestic defence industry
armed forces capable not only of reacting to threats but of preventing them.

In an era of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, strategic decisions in the field of national security require broad political consensus and long-term state-level thinking.

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Kamil Kusier
redaktor naczelny

bezpieczeństwo Polski modernizacja polskiej armii program SAFE wydatki na obronność geopolityka Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

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