Europe without illusions: sea, trade and security in the new transatlantic architecture. a voice of realism?

Relations between the European Union and the United States remain one of the most complex and strategically significant elements of contemporary international policy. Remarks by Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025 sparked debate on the future of the transatlantic alliance and Europe’s role in global security. Vance argued that Europe’s greatest threat is not Russia or China, but the erosion of democratic norms, including restrictions on free speech, marginalization of political opponents, and the exclusion of dissenting voices from public discourse. In other words, internal threats to democracy may be more serious than external ones.

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08 january 2026   |   07:07   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

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Yet, in the context of EU–US relations, external threats remain crucial. Vance emphasized that Europe has long relied on American security infrastructure, and he called for a fairer distribution of defense burdens, suggesting an increase in defense spending to 3% of GDP. He also warned that Europe should not be a “permanent security vassal” of the United States and must assume greater responsibility for its own continental defense, allowing Washington to focus on challenges in East Asia. Additionally, he highlighted mass migration as a pressing challenge and advocated for strong measures to address it. On trade, he stressed the need to balance the global system, preventing US industrial production from weakening under the weight of other countries’ export surpluses.

These positions reflect a broader shift in US foreign policy, emphasizing domestic interests and pressing allies to share the costs of global security. Europe must demonstrate both the ability to defend itself and the strategic value of such defense to the United States. Eastern flank countries, including Poland, are central: their defense, technological, and demographic capacities determine Washington’s presence in the region.

Poland’s defense spending in 2024 amounts to roughly 3% of US expenditures, 10% of China’s, 20% of Russia’s, and about half of Germany’s or the United Kingdom’s. Although the EU’s combined defense budget exceeds China’s, fragmentation and lack of standardization limit the effectiveness of continental capabilities. This underscores the need for transatlantic economic and military alignment, as gaps in one area reduce effectiveness in the other.

The concept of economic NATO

Facing China’s rise and global uncertainty, the creation of an Economic NATO—a free trade area among NATO members, potentially including Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—offers a strategic path forward. The proposal involves eliminating internal trade barriers while maintaining independent external tariffs, allowing gradual economic integration compatible with political realities.

Economic NATO would enhance not only economic potential but also resilience to military, technological, and energy-related threats. A unified market exceeding 45–50% of global GDP would provide leverage to set global standards, enforce fair taxation, and coordinate investments in critical technologies. Cooperation in dual-use sectors—military and civilian—could strengthen both defense and innovation capabilities across member states.

Strategic coordination within Economic NATO could also improve supply chain resilience. By promoting nearshoring and friendshoring, member countries would reduce dependency on China and other non-allied states for critical technologies, energy, and raw materials. Furthermore, joint industrial planning and production coordination could prevent duplication, reduce costs, and ensure rapid scalability of defense-related manufacturing in times of crisis.

Trade, innovation, and resilience

Economic NATO is not just about removing barriers. It allows allies to align on trade policies, investment strategies, and regulation. Harmonizing standards in emerging technologies, such as semiconductors, AI, and renewable energy, would create competitive advantages over China, India, and other global players.

Joint oversight of big-tech taxation and investment could stimulate R&D in Europe and North America. By attracting capital into strategic sectors, member countries could revitalize industrial capacity, accelerate innovation, and reduce vulnerabilities in critical areas. This is particularly important for Europe, which faces a risk of technological and industrial dependence if current trends continue.

Strengthening security and deterrence

Economic NATO also reinforces security. Coordinated defense spending, production planning, and strategic reserves would enhance deterrence, including nuclear capabilities. A harmonized transatlantic approach would streamline decision-making and reduce inefficiencies currently arising from fragmented European defense structures.

Additionally, shared standards for dual-use technologies would create a framework similar to COCOM during the Cold War, controlling sensitive exports and preventing adversaries from acquiring strategic capabilities. COCOM 2.0, embedded within Economic NATO, could serve as a modern mechanism to maintain technological and industrial advantages in a multipolar world.

Poland’s pivotal role

Poland, located on NATO’s eastern flank, is a critical player in this new architecture. By modernizing its military, expanding domestic defense production, and investing in dual-use technology sectors, Poland can enhance its strategic importance and attract US and European investment. Regional cooperation with like-minded partners would reinforce both security and economic resilience.

A strong Poland within Economic NATO also provides leverage for the EU to balance relations with external powers, particularly China and Russia. By reducing dependency on external suppliers and strengthening domestic industrial capacity, Poland contributes to collective European and transatlantic security.

Shaping a resilient and prosperous Europe

Europe stands at a crossroads. Past models based on unlimited optimism, centralization, and rigid ideological policies have led to stagnation, declining competitiveness, and increasing external dependence. The new reality demands pragmatism: defending national interests while building alliances that are both strategic and mutually beneficial.

Europe of strategic partnerships requires flexibility, respect for sovereignty, and a focus on tangible results. Policies must account for economic, social, and technological realities rather than ideological aspirations. Climate, migration, and security strategies should adapt to local contexts while aligning with collective objectives.

Economic NATO offers a clear path: eliminating internal barriers, harmonizing regulations, stimulating innovation, and securing supply chains. Such a bloc would allow Europe and the United States to assert influence over global standards, protect strategic industries, and maintain resilience in the face of rising powers.

For Poland and other eastern flank countries, the stakes are high. Strengthened economies, modernized defense capabilities, and strategic technological investments are key to both national and regional security.

Ultimately, the future of Europe depends on leadership that prioritizes strategic foresight, not short-term politics. By embracing partnerships, fostering innovation, and investing in resilience, Europe can navigate the multipolar world effectively. Economic NATO, combined with strong national capacities and transatlantic cooperation, represents a tangible framework to secure prosperity, security, and sovereignty for the continent in the 21st century.

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