Baltic and North Atlantic seen as likely flashpoints in NATO-Russia tensions

Military analyst Professor Michael Clarke has warned that the most probable location for a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia would be the Baltic Sea or the north Atlantic. Speaking to Sky News, Clarke noted that the course of events suggests both sides are “on a road towards confrontation,” even if that does not mean war is inevitable.

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12 september 2025   |   16:43   |   Source: Gazeta Morska / PAP   |   Prepared by: Marta Zabłocka   |   Print

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Maritime triggers for escalation

Clarke pointed to several scenarios that could spark an incident at sea, including:

• sabotage of subsea communication cables,
• submarine encounters,
• the interception of a tanker carrying Russian oil or gas in breach of sanctions.

He cited a precedent set by Finland, which already detained a vessel under suspicion of violating sanctions. In his view, it is increasingly likely that NATO navies could seize tankers, leaving them moored in European ports for years while legal disputes over ownership unfold.

Rising pressure in the Baltic

Following repeated airspace violations — most recently Russian drones crossing into Polish territory — Clarke said NATO allies may commit to strengthening air defence systems and adopting a firmer political stance toward Moscow.

He identified Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland and Denmark as the countries most at risk, given their strategic role in securing maritime routes and regional stability.

Royal Navy on the front line

In the event of a confrontation in the north Atlantic, Clarke suggested that the Royal Navy would be among the first to respond, particularly in cases involving critical infrastructure or illicit energy shipments.

— I think we are quite close to such a situation, Clarke concluded.

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