Three decades without submarines. Poland’s “Orka” program still stalled amid international talks

Despite regional security challenges and years of political declarations, Poland still has not signed a contract for new submarines under the long-delayed "Orka" program. Member of Parliament Michał Woś is demanding concrete answers from the Ministry of National Defence. The official reply: market consultations have ended, and intergovernmental (G2G) negotiations are underway. But a final decision or timeline? Still unclear.

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16 july 2025   |   19:00   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

fot. Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems

Parliamentary interventions: What’s next for the Orka program?

In a formal interpellation (No. 10140), MP Michał Woś questions the current status of the submarine acquisition effort, emphasizing that the government previously announced a contract would be signed by the end of 2025. As of mid-2025, that deadline appears unlikely to be met.

- There is not even a selected government or manufacturer in place, Michał Woś said, warning that further delays pose a threat to the operational readiness of the Polish Navy and risk eroding national submarine expertise.

Poland’s submarine fleet: One vessel in service, no training rotation

Today, the Polish Navy operates only one active submarine – the aging ORP Orzeł, a Soviet-built Kilo-class (project 877E) vessel from the 1980s. Its technical condition has long been under scrutiny, and ongoing upgrades are limited and patchwork.

Two other former submarines – ORP Sęp and ORP Bielik – have been withdrawn from service. The Sęp now functions as a museum exhibit in Gdynia, while the Bielik is used for educational purposes by the Polish Naval Academy. As a result, the Polish Navy currently lacks not only operational rotation but also a dedicated training platform for future submarine crews.

Baltic under pressure: Russian threats and strategic vacuum

MP Woś also stressed the broader security implications of the stalled program. With the ongoing war in Ukraine and increasing Russian naval activity in the Baltic Sea, Poland’s lack of a modern submarine capability impacts the country’s standing within NATO and regional deterrence.

Delaying the acquisition further would, in Woś’s words, represent a “strategic error.” He also requested clarity from the Ministry regarding:

• the current stage of the procurement process,
• expected timelines for contract signing,
• the nature of delays (political, financial, procedural?),
• potential interim solutions,
• and the list of offers under consideration.

Defence ministry responds: Consultations ended, G2G talks ongoing

In response, Deputy Defence Minister Paweł Bejda confirmed that Poland’s Armament Agency has completed its market consultations based on classified planning documents and needs assessments.

A dedicated task force has developed detailed equipment requirements and feasibility studies for the “Orka” program. Currently, the Ministry is conducting intergovernmental talks (G2G) with nations representing potential suppliers.

No timetable or preferred offer has been revealed. The Ministry also avoided directly answering whether any stop-gap solutions (such as leasing) are being considered.

Who’s competing? Six contenders under consideration

While the Ministry did not disclose current frontrunners, previous public disclosures by the Armament Agency indicate that six manufacturers remain under consideration:

• Germany (TKMS) – Type 212CD: a cutting-edge AIP-powered platform selected by both Germany and Norway.
• Sweden (Saab Kockums) – A26 Blekinge-class: a modular AIP design tailored for special operations.
• Italy (Fincantieri) – U212 NFS: an Italian-enhanced version of the German 212 with upgraded combat systems.
• France (Naval Group) – Scorpène-class: a proven export platform in service with India, Brazil, and Chile.
• Spain (Navantia) – S-80 Plus: a new-generation Spanish submarine with AIP capabilities.
• South Korea (Hanwha Ocean) – KSS-III: the heaviest and most heavily armed of the candidates, not yet exported to Europe.

Although no official preference has been stated, industry sources suggest that Germany’s offer currently aligns most closely with the Polish government's strategic and industrial priorities.

No timeline, no contract – only more uncertainty

Despite the conclusion of the analytical phase, Poland’s submarine acquisition remains politically and procedurally stalled. The Ministry has not provided any projected contract date, nor has it outlined a roadmap for delivery, training, or industrial participation.

As a result, nearly 30 years after initiating efforts to modernize its undersea fleet, Poland remains without a signed contract, a clear procurement timeline, or a backup plan for operational readiness.

Underwater capability at risk

With a single aging submarine in service and no training vessels or interim assets in place, Poland’s Navy is currently unable to maintain rotation or ensure continuous underwater presence.

Former frontline platforms now serve as museum pieces and training props. In the face of rising tensions across the Baltic, the strategic vacuum in Poland’s submarine force raises serious questions about preparedness, deterrence, and long-term defence policy.

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