SAFE 2025: Why Poland’s sovereignty and security outweigh EU promises

Poland is reaching for €20 billion from the EU’s SAFE fund—13.33% of the €150 billion pot earmarked for the defense of 27 member states. The goal? Submarines under the Orka program to bolster the Polish Navy. Yet Brussels won’t release such a sum when France, Germany, and the Baltic states dominate the negotiation table. Majority approval? Unlikely. Poland watches from the sidelines instead of pushing hard for its interests. Meanwhile, France has revived its Les Forges de Tarbes factory—from near collapse in 2021 to full-scale ammunition production by 2025. Poland waits for EU miracles, losing time instead of building its own defense industry. President Andrzej Duda lays down the gauntlet: constitutional guarantees, domestic factories, and self-reliant forces. Amid SAFE’s shadow, Poland’s sovereignty and security take precedence—especially given the geopolitical stakes.

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23 march 2025   |   07:07   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

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SAFE Fund: a mirage on the defense horizon

SAFE—Security Action for Europe—emerged on March 19, 2025, as a €150 billion loan scheme for 2025–2030. Poland eyes €20 billion (PLN 100 billion), equivalent to its defense budget (PLN 130–140 billion at 4.7% GDP in 2025), targeting Orka and naval expansion. Split evenly, each of the 27 states would get €5.56 billion—but EU fund allocation is never equal. Poland’s €20 billion bid—four times the average—needs majority backing it won’t secure. France prioritizes FCAS and drones, Germany pushes Arrow 3, Lithuania opts for HIMARS. SAFE means debt and EU constraints, while Poland’s leverage weakens at an overcrowded table.

Les Forges de Tarbes: France’s lesson for Polish industry

France acts decisively. Les Forges de Tarbes, an ammunition plant in the Pyrenees, faced ruin in 2021—protests, stagnation, closure threats. Today, it churns out 155mm shells for Caesar howitzers, aiding Ukraine. In 18 months, Paris turned it around, knowing time equals security. Poland, by contrast, hesitates—watching Europe instead of scaling up its own shipyards, ammo plants, and tech. It’s baffling. No one should outpace us, yet we stagnate while others build and claim seats at the EU’s cramped table.

Duda’s vision: a constitutional defense shield

President Andrzej Duda proposes a bedrock: enshrine a minimum 4% GDP defense spending in Poland’s constitution. In 2025, Poland will hit 4.7% (PLN 130–140 billion)—more than some peers, though percentages vary by economy. It’s still insufficient. The Navy advances with “Miecznik” (PLN 10 billion for three frigates), “Kormoran” (minehunters), and “Ratownik,” but “Orka” (PLN 10–15 billion) remains embryonic. Infrastructure, training, and bases lag. The Air Force’s 32 F-35s (USD 6.5 billion) need more squadrons, drones, and missiles. Domestic arms factories, like France’s, are vital. A 5–6% GDP commitment (PLN 150–180 billion annually) could secure independence and strength—but will Poland step up?

Duda’s March 2025 constitutional amendment targets Article 26, mandating 4% GDP for defense. It’s a response to Ukraine’s war, Belarus’s hybrid attacks, and Russia’s pressure—Poland must be ready. This locks future governments into prioritizing arms over populism, ensuring stability. Critics warn the budget can’t cope. But can security be priced? It’s an investment in sovereignty—from the Baltic to the Tatras, from the Navy to the skies. Without it, Poland risks weakness at a pivotal moment.

PE resolution: political noise around “Eastern Shield”

On March 12, 2025, the European Parliament passed a resolution—419 for, 204 against. PO-PSL tacked on “Eastern Shield” as a “flagship EU project,” though it isn’t. PM Donald Tusk hailed it as a win, slamming opponents like PiS as “Russia’s lackeys.” It’s a distortion. The resolution offers no funds or binding decisions—just political bluster hinting at ceding national defense powers to the EU, weakening Poland’s MoD. “Eastern Shield” (PLN 10 billion) is a Polish initiative, not EU-driven—its inclusion was a hollow gesture. PiS and Konfederacja backed the Shield but rejected the resolution’s 89 points: centralized EU defense, majority voting, a Defense Ministers’ Council, and joint procurement via SAFE loans. Jarosław Kaczyński insists “sovereignty is our own army.” Opposition isn’t “shame,” as Tusk claims—it’s Poland’s defense.

PO’s flip-flop: from border wall to shield

In 2021, Belarus weaponized migrants against Poland. PiS built a PLN 1.6 billion border wall—effective against Lukashenko’s hybrid threat. PO voted no, decrying it as “inhumane, too costly.” Now Tusk touts “Eastern Shield”—an extension of that wall—as his brainchild. Where’s the consistency? The resolution’s Shield spin is more sleight of hand—selling Poles on nonexistent EU backing. EU cooperation could work, but first, face the bloc’s dodged sanctions, Russia ties, and shortsighted security focus. In crises, every state fends for itself.

SAFE: loss or opportunity for Polish defense?

Is SAFE a bust? Possibly. Time’s lost—Orka drags on, the Navy waits. Money’s at risk—€20 billion in loans means PLN 100 billion in debt, versus spending our own PLN 140 billion yearly. Sovereignty’s on the line—EU strings tie our hands. Poles deserve results, especially in security.

Secure Poland: bet on domestic arms industry

Poland must play its own game—push to 5–6% GDP on defense, build factories for ammo, ships, planes. The Navy needs ambition—Orka and Miecznik aren’t enough. The Air Force’s F-35s are a start, but drones and broader capabilities are urgent. A professional military secures Poland. Duda charts the course: constitutional reform, independence, and a robust arms industry. SAFE’s a pipe dream, the resolution’s noise—Poland’s sovereignty and security are non-negotiable. Build now—the Baltic awaits, and submarines in Gdańsk Bay are rarer than whales, though one surfaced there this month.

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