Poland’s ORKA submarine gamble. Who will become Warsaw’s strategic naval partner?

Poland is preparing to announce one of the most consequential procurement decisions in its modern naval history. The ORKA programme — intended to provide the Polish Navy with a new class of submarines — is expected to be settled by late November 2025. Defence circles quietly suggest that the announcement may coincide with the symbolic navy celebration in Gdynia on 28 November or even the following day during the cadets’ ceremony at the Polish Naval Academy.

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13 october 2025   |   11:36   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

fot. Kamil Kusier / Gazeta Morska

As the Baltic becomes one of NATO’s most strategic choke points, this tender is no longer just a contract. It is a declaration of industrial alignment, long-term naval doctrine and geopolitical signalling. Six major players remain in the race: Naval Group (France), TKMS (Germany), Saab (Sweden), Fincantieri (Italy), Navantia (Spain) and the South Korean consortium of Hanwha Ocean with Hyundai Heavy Industries.

France: Scorpène Evolved and a promise of genuine technology transfer

Naval Group proposes the Scorpène Evolved, a submarine configuration tailored for long-range strike capabilities, including the integration of MdCN cruise missiles via vertical launchers. This option would give Poland a strategic deterrence capability far beyond the Baltic basin.

The French side has already signed an Industrial Cooperation Agreement (ICA) with Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa and PGZ Stocznia Wojenna, declaring readiness to integrate Polish shipyards into the modular construction process. Naval Group strongly positions Poland not only as an operator, but as a manufacturing actor in its global supply chain — a rare stance among Western suppliers.

Germany: TKMS and the 212CD – NATO interoperability as the core argument

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems enters the competition with the Type 212CD, a design co-developed with Norway. It features one of the most mature AIP systems based on fuel cells, extremely low acoustic signature and full compatibility with NATO combat systems — a strong argument for a navy deeply integrated within alliance structures.

However, while TKMS has expressed willingness to include Polish firms in its production ecosystem, no formal MoU or industrial transfer agreement has been signed to date, placing the German offer on the conservative end of the industrial commitment scale.

South Korea: high-intensity export strategy and the only confirmed investment package

The Hanwha Ocean and Hyundai Heavy Industries consortium is pushing the most aggressive industrial proposition with its KSS-III Batch 2 platform — the largest and most strike-oriented submarine in the competition. Designed to host vertical launchers for long-range land-attack missiles, it signals a shift towards offensive deterrence at sea.

Crucially, South Korea is the only competitor to publicly declare a financial figure — around 100 million USD earmarked for setting up maintenance infrastructure, potential assembly lines and a long-term MRO centre in Poland. Discussions already name specific Polish locations — PGZ Stocznia Wojenna, Remontowa Shipbuilding, Nauta — alongside electronics partners such as WB Group and OBR CTM.

Sweden: Saab A26 and the Baltic expertise doctrine

Sweden’s Saab A26 family, offered in Pelagic and Oceanic variants, is specifically engineered for shallow and cold-water operations — the exact tactical environment of the Baltic Sea. The concept of „ghost mode” focuses on extreme acoustic, thermal and magnetic stealth to operate unseen in contested littoral zones.

Saab signed a memorandum with PGZ and WB Group, proposing Polish integration of combat electronics and unmanned systems. The Swedish approach favours high-tech cooperation rather than large-scale industrial infrastructure — a model that strengthens Polish R&D capabilities and naval autonomy in the electronic warfare spectrum.

Italy: Fincantieri wants Poland as a co-exporting partner, not just an end user

Italy’s Fincantieri has presented the 212NFS, a national evolution of the German 212 platform with enhanced automation and greater independence in combat system integration. The Italian shipbuilder signed an MoU with PGZ, openly framing Poland not as a client, but as a potential co-producer for future export markets.

The 212NFS is being positioned by Rome as a European alternative within the NATO framework, and Fincantieri has suggested that Poland could become the second industrial pillar of the programme, sharing in long-term supply chain profits — but without yet attaching a quantified investment offer.

Spain: Navantia plays the technological distinctiveness card with S-80 Plus

Navantia enters with the S-80 Plus, equipped with a proprietary AIP system based on bioethanol reformer technology — a unique solution among Western designs. This provides extended submerged endurance without surfacing for battery recharge, offering operational advantages in prolonged surveillance missions.

Talks with PGZ cover service infrastructure and life-cycle support. Spain positions itself as a flexible partner willing to establish a Polish service hub for the region, but like Germany, no declared investment package or industrial anchor commitment has yet been announced.

Who offers Poland the most industrial leverage?

• South Korea stands out with a concrete financial commitment and a clear roadmap to build Polish industrial capacity, including potential assembly lines.
• France focuses on deep technology transfer, positioning Polish shipyards within global production schemes — a high-value offer in terms of long-term competency building, even without an upfront financial figure.
• Italy provides a co-export narrative, promising integration into its naval supply chain for future markets, while Sweden emphasises Polish participation in high-tech subsystems and electronic warfare.
• Germany and Spain suggest inclusion in supply chains and service capacity but remain cautious, lacking formalised investment or production guarantees.

Global production strain: every yard is already stretched

Despite the impressive portfolio of offers, every contender faces domestic industrial pressure. Naval Group is managing multiple parallel contracts for its own navy, India and Australia. TKMS capacity is largely tied to German and Norwegian deliveries, raising concerns about production timeline flexibility.

South Korean shipyards are in a historic export expansion phase, handling contracts for Indonesia and regional partners while also fulfilling domestic orders. Sweden, after a period of dormant submarine production, is rebuilding assembly capacity through the A26 programme. Meanwhile, Italy and Spain are keeping their naval industries active by aggressively seeking export partners to avoid production gaps.

For Poland, this means that securing production slot priority may soon matter as much as choosing the best platform.

Symbolic announcement expected – more than a naval procurement

With the potential announcement aligned with the late November navy celebrations in Gdynia, the ORKA decision is expected to carry symbolic and geopolitical weight. Announcing a strategic submarine partnership during a military ceremony would send a clear signal to European allies — and to Moscow — that Poland intends to redefine its role in Baltic deterrence.

Poland has waited three decades – this time it wants more than steel

Poland has not acquired new submarines since the early 1990s. For nearly 30 years, domestic naval competencies in submarine technology have eroded. ORKA is therefore not only a hardware deal — it is a generational opportunity to rebuild national industrial know-how and to secure autonomy in maintenance, upgrades and future development.

This time, Warsaw is not merely buying a fleet. It is choosing a strategic industrial ally for the next half-century.

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