Warm spells, storms and shifting winds: May brings dynamic weather to the Baltic coast

May 2026 is expected to be a month of strong weather contrasts along the Polish coast and across the southern Baltic. The opening days of the month will bring unusually warm conditions, extended sunny periods and temperatures encouraging the first major wave of seaside tourism, coastal recreation and the start of the yachting season. At the same time, meteorologists warn that the coming weeks will require close monitoring of forecasts, as stable weather patterns will increasingly give way to atmospheric fronts, local thunderstorms and rapidly changing wind conditions.

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01 may 2026   |   14:29   |   Source: Gazeta Morska   |   Prepared by: Kamil Kusier   |   Print

fot. Mariusz Jasłowski

According to the latest synoptic analyses, Poland and the Baltic coastal zone will remain under the influence of frequent air mass exchanges throughout May. Very warm air from southwestern Europe is expected to clash with cooler, more humid Atlantic systems moving in from the northwest.

- The beginning of May will offer highly favorable conditions for outdoor tourism, coastal recreation and marine activities. We expect plenty of sunshine, rising temperatures and relatively calm weather patterns during the first part of the month, says meteorologist Mariusz Jasłowski, editor-in-chief of Meteo24 and weather expert for Daily Mare.

Early May brings summer-like conditions to the coast

The first days of May are forecast to deliver temperatures of 14–19°C directly along the coastline, while inland areas of Pomerania and western Poland may locally reach 20–27°C.

The thermal contrast between land and sea will remain noticeable, particularly during afternoon hours, when cooler air from the Baltic Sea moderates temperatures on beaches, promenades and in port areas.

Mornings and nights, however, will remain significantly cooler. Coastal fog and sea mist are likely to develop locally due to the interaction between warmer continental air and still relatively cold Baltic waters.

These conditions may temporarily reduce visibility in harbors, marinas and nearshore waters.

- Along the Baltic coast, May frequently brings localized fog formation and rapidly changing visibility conditions. This is a typical transitional-season feature driven by sharp thermal contrasts between sea surface temperatures and warming land areas, explains Mariusz Jasłowski.

Good outlook for tourism and coastal foot traffic

For the tourism sector, the opening phase of May looks promising. Longer daylight hours, warmer temperatures and lighter winds are expected to support increased visitor traffic in coastal resorts, promenades and beach destinations.

The best conditions for walking tourism and outdoor hospitality are expected during high-pressure periods, when wind speeds remain moderate and cloud cover limited.

However, this more stable weather pattern is not expected to persist uninterrupted.

As the month progresses, passing fronts will bring periods of stronger winds, brief but intense rainfall and locally developing thunderstorms.

- This will be a month of rapid weather transitions. A clear and sunny morning may quickly evolve into afternoon showers, stronger gusts or isolated thunderstorm activity, notes Mariusz Jasłowski.

For hotels, restaurants and tourism operators, this means strong early-season demand but continued dependence on short-term weather developments.

Marine conditions and outlook for sailors

May traditionally marks the operational start of the recreational sailing season across Polish marinas and yacht harbors. This year, opening conditions should be generally favorable, especially during the first week of the month.

Prevailing winds are expected to remain light to moderate, periodically strengthening to fresh or locally strong, mainly from northwesterly, westerly and southwesterly directions.

Wind gusts may reach 30–60 km/h during frontal passages and convective episodes.

For sailors and marina operators, this means manageable but increasingly variable conditions.

As atmospheric instability grows later in the month, localized convective cells may develop more frequently over nearshore waters and the open southern Baltic.

- Sailors should closely monitor radar imagery and marine warnings throughout May. Convective systems over the Baltic can intensify quickly, causing sudden wind acceleration and rapidly deteriorating navigation conditions, warns Mariusz Jasłowski.

Meteorologists also highlight the risk of squall lines and fast-moving storm cells, especially affecting western coastal sections and open-water routes.

Second half of May expected to become more unsettled

Long-range models indicate that the second half of May may become increasingly dynamic, with a higher frequency of frontal systems, convective rainfall, gustier winds and short-lived cooling episodes following warmer periods.

This does not suggest a prolonged deterioration of conditions. Instead, alternating periods of sunshine and warmth are likely to be interrupted by bursts of more active weather.

- May 2026 is shaping up as a highly dynamic month for the Baltic region. While many days will remain favorable for tourism and marine recreation, both professionals and leisure users should remain alert to rapidly changing atmospheric conditions, concludes Mariusz Jasłowski.

For the coastal economy, the forecast remains broadly positive. The warm start to May is likely to support an early increase in visitor numbers and improved business activity across seaside destinations. At the same time, the naturally changeable spring weather over the Baltic serves as a reminder that even during warmer spells, maritime operations still demand caution, planning and respect for local conditions.

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